This graph shows the evolution of George W. Bush’s approval rating over time. His approval rating rose to 68% in March 2003, at the beginning of the Iraq war, and declined steadily after that. It is now at 26%. Not only did the war not proceed the way he had told people but there is a growing number of Americans questioning the idea of going to Iraq in the first place.

How to lead?
First: be right
No matter how good you are at executing and communicating, and how much charisma and resolution you have, if you are wrong, you will fail. Churchill was resolved but he was right. In the hiking story above, the leader was sure of himself but wrong. He overestimated how lost we were.
To be right, you need facts.
In real life, we do not know with certainty the actual situation. In the context of uncertainty (most real life situations), the more certain you are the more likely you will be wrong. Facts are even more important in uncertain situations. Why? What you know and what don’t know are facts. ”I am lost in the forest” is a fact. If the leader in the hiking story would have admitted the true level of uncertainty about how lost we were, he could have proposed a series of tests. For example, he could have propose a short walk in a different direction to gather more facts about the current location. A negative result would then have been seen as new information on where not to go instead.
Second: Communicate facts (reason for change)
It is very difficult to convince people to change something if they are not convinced about what the problems are and their urgency, see John Kotter. Two economists might disagree even if they use the same economic model. By separating fact from opinion, we might understand the input or assumption and understand why those economists disagree. Whenever you make a decision where people must follow your lead, facts are the essence of getting people agreeing on the current situation and the course of action.
In business transformation (change Management), facts are more than data “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” (Sign hanging in Albert Einstein’s office at Princeton), facts are like an observable situation that can be described and shared.

Once facts are gathered and separated from opinion, they can be shared during working sessions. Those sessions permit the group to agree on problems. Consequently, it will be much easier to get the group to agree on a course of action once they have agreed on the problems. During those working sessions, the focus is first on the current situation, not the course of action. Ensure everybody that they are respected and never discard people expressing bad news (don’t shoot the messenger). Often they might be your best source of facts. To ensure the free flow of information, remove red tape, formal presentation and favor a more informal organization with a high degree of respect, see ‘‘The Death to Bureaucracy” from Jack Welch.
Third: gather more facts
Often, you need to collect more facts. Creativity and imagination are required to gather facts. For example, in the above story, a series of short walks in different directions is an approach to gather more facts on the current location. Gathering facts is boiled down to: observation, experiment, calculation and simulation. Fact gathering is not a consensus driven process. You are collecting evidence. Never rely on opinion. Humans are biased and opinions rarely correlate with facts.
In business transformation initiative, the best sources of fact are field studies. The field is rich and wild; people develop very sophisticated tactics in real work environment. Knowledge lies in the field, not in meeting rooms. The worst source of facts is the traditional hierarchy : line manager, director and executive. Facts gathered through this path will surely be altered, trimmed down or hidden.
Fourth: prevent bias
Facts may be distorted. When relying on human sources, multiple independent sources are required. Be careful with surveys or focus groups, they do not gather facts but opinions. They provide the tip of an iceberg. Avoid group meetings. Groups are only good to solve problems, to brainstorm or share information.
Objectivity does not exist; you have to cope with that.
No matter how good the information is, if you are biased, or already convinced of the answer, you are in danger. A bias could, for example, lead one to accept or deny the truth of a claim, discard evidence or look for evidence that confirms a preconceived idea (confirmation bias). In the hiking story, the guy seemed so sure of himself that we trusted him even if the direction he gave did not ring a bell to us.
To reduce bias, observe yourself to see if you feel emotional. You need to detach yourself. It is well known that a lawyer should never defend himself or a medical doctor should never diagnose himself. Ask different persons in a one on one session to interpret facts. Don’t give them your thoughts. Observe the difference in their interpretation. Try to think as fresh as you can. Gather all facts prior to a decision. In order to avoid bias, good investigators will collect evidence and then conclude. After all this work, let the decision emerge naturally. If you still do not feel not comfortable, your instinct will tells you there is something wrong, listen to it. It means there are still uncertainties that you have to work with, or simply wait.
The four steps described here relate to making the right decision and communicating that decision (vision) to a group of people. Once you have the right direction and a group of people agreeing with you on the course of action, executing change is a piece of cake.
Leading people in the right direction requires hard work, time, experience and wisdom. You can get there faster by practicing the right thing. For more on the subject, I suggest reading John Kotter on this subject and “Engineering psychology” by Christopher Wickens.

a.    It is difficult for people to verbally describe visual-spatial operations.  For example, five people witnessing a car accident will tell five different stories 

b.    It is harder, if not almost impossible, for someone to recall in detail an experience out of context  

Our experience has show in more than 100 projects, that these operations are often critical for understanding the business

Doing the right thing – The Cognitive Engineering Approach

The application of the Cognitive Approach helps an organization to learn at a faster pace:  

“An organization’s ability to learn, and translate that learning into rapid action, is the ultimate competitive advantage.” Jack Welch   

Cognitive Engineering  places particular emphasis on the analysis of cognitive processes – e.g., diagnosis, decision making and planning  It aim to enhance performance of cognitive tasks by means of several interventions, including:

• user-centered design of human-machine interaction and human-computer interaction (HCI);
• design of information technology systems that support cognitive tasks (e.g., cognitive artifacts);
• development of training programs;
• work redesign to manage cognitive workload and increase human reliability

 Like a medical scanner that provides a clear view of the inside of the human body, the cognitive approach provides and inside view of the business.  Why:The Cognitive approach permits to gather information and understand operation up to the thinking processes level.  It allows a deeper understanding of the business problems or needs. This thorough understating will be then translated into better decisions.  Overall, the Cognitive approach comprises the rigorous practice of gathering information, human information processing, analysis, business modeling, and simulation.  

Gathering information

Instead of relying only on meetings, surveys or internal documentation; information is gathered in the field with “thinking out loud” techniques while people are performing their tasks. This ensures a deeper understanding of the current situation. Even if a process is totally changed, gathering information with the cognitive approach exceeds the risks of not doing so.  

Information processing

To understand the thinking process, goals and knowledge, a Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) is performed.  Cognitive goals, sub-goals and methods are then described hierarchically.  Methods are extracted with “how” questions, and goals are extracted with “why” questions.  At the end of the process, management will have a deep understanding of the operations, problems, and strategies. This ensures an effective way to optimize any process. Cognitive task analysis serves also as input for defining the requirements of an information system. 

Process Modeling

The business is modeled as a hierarchy of systems and processes. The highest level is the mission, followed by generic functions, specific functions and ultimately, at the most detailed level, the structural elements. The gathering techniques along with the cognitive task analysis ensure that the business model will be grounded with reality.  This provides a complete and exact picture of the operation to management. 

Simulation

Before executing a plan, each risk is analyzed and addressed by simulation and calculation. For example, in information technology (IT), user acceptance is often the prime risk.  Simulating the user interface prior to writing any line of code ensures that the user and the business needs are first met. 

The application of the Cognitive Approach helps an organization to learn at a faster pace:  “An organization’s ability to learn, and translate that learning into rapid action, is the ultimate competitive advantage.” Jack Welch